Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1049
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 30 2025 22:40:47

ACUS11 KWNS 302240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302240=20
MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-310045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...Northern Virginia...Washington DC...parts of
central Maryland

Concerning...Tornado Watch 350...

Valid 302240Z - 310045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 350 continues.

SUMMARY...A local corridor of greater tornado threat is evident in
the DC/Baltimore region over the next 1-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...A narrow zone of favorably backed surface winds, south
of a warm front near the PA/MD border, will be the most favorable
corridor for tornadoes over the next 1-3 hours. Local VAD data from
KLWX and nearby TDWRs show sufficient SRH for low-level mesocyclone
development. A bookend vortex within a linear segment in northern
Virginia will continue north-northeast into this favorable zone.
Farther east, additional discrete storms will also have some
potential to produce a tornado. The primary limiting factors will be
modest buoyancy, weak mid-level lapse rates, and limited remaining
time for surface heating.

...Wendt.. 05/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-3WADs_akX7_deCQaD7cEx6y4GxZz7tMwM0UJDLe4o_WAVWFIx_redOOiqW61h_OC_BR4bJf-=
wawHQxD-TMGTf7lyj8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...

LAT...LON   38847850 39007821 39187785 39357727 39347659 39147634
            38797648 38477706 38367775 38337838 38847850=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN




=3D =3D =3D
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