Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1046
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 30 2025 21:23:30

ACUS11 KWNS 302029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302029=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-302200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...Parts of south-central VA into north-central NC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 348...

Valid 302029Z - 302200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 348 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest near-term severe threat (through at least
22Z) should be focused over south-central Virginia into
north-central North Carolina within Tornado Watch 348.

DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented band of convection with
brief/embedded supercell structures is tracking eastward across
southwest/south-central VA into far north-central NC -- ahead of the
cold front. Ahead of these storms, temperatures have warmed into the
upper 70s amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints, which is yielding
moderately unstable surface-based inflow. Around 40-50 kt of
effective shear and locally boosted low-level SRH (upwards of 150
m2/s2 effective SRH) should support a locally favorable area for
embedded supercell structures capable of producing locally damaging
gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.

...Weinman.. 05/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!616Fphn6cc3awnKqJ8mad6tvpOOIwwSQoCXlALr-XpkBoFBVK0uXHP_phHkccTIAUoCqlw_kC=
yLXtPR6ejodKkdmBAY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36368027 37607941 38017897 37967840 37687813 36907839
            36077892 35947944 36078012 36368027=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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