Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1045
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 30 2025 20:29:49

ACUS11 KWNS 301951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301950=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-302115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...Far southeast Georgia...eastern South
Carolina...and southeastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 301950Z - 302115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed within
the next hour as a line of thunderstorms moves eastward out of the
southern Appalachians towards the Atlantic coast. These storms will
primarily be capable of damaging wind gusts, particularly where any
convective clusters/bowing segments organize.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms is moving eastward towards far
eastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeastern Virginia.
Ahead of the storms, daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing has
destabilized the environment -- with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 40 kts of
deep-layer shear -- which will support some organization into severe
thunderstorm lines and clusters capable of damaging winds, and
perhaps some hail. WW issuance will be needed within the next hour
as convection exits WW 347.

...Halbert/Smith.. 05/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-A53nvL4rXMrhyMLGz07ZVPzqLfT_Ci2rN_chWOfH-gHBMzKG23ScLcjp8KRp293e6K5iWOIE=
Xe_MPMwcU_mPI_XU_o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...

LAT...LON   34098073 35147952 35427914 35497864 35277755 34977705
            34567713 34037761 33777792 32987905 32128019 31928077
            31988126 32258203 32698205 33218158 34098073=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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