Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1043
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 30 2025 17:06:25

ACUS11 KWNS 301706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301706=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-301900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern WV...western/central VA...and
northern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 301706Z - 301900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase with eastward extent through
mid/late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be
possible. A watch is likely for parts of the area, especially across
Virginia into North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...A mix of semi-discrete, marginal supercell structures
and line segments are advancing eastward across far southwestern WV
and far southwestern VA -- ahead of a surface low and cold front. In
the near-term, this activity is in an environment characterized by
weak buoyancy and strong/favorable low-level shear/SRH. As a result,
these storms will pose some tornado risk, though the limited
buoyancy casts uncertainty on the overall risk. Farther east,
continued diurnal heating of upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints will
contribute to stronger buoyancy along/south of a quasi-warm front
extending from the surface low eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. While
low-level SRH may not be quite as high with eastward extent,=20
clockwise-curved hodographs and sufficient instability ahead of the
surface low will support damaging winds and a few tornadoes -- given
an expected cellular mode. A watch is likely for parts of the area,
with less confidence in the overall risk with westward extent.

...Weinman/Smith.. 05/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4YYLoo_oiHlylRkPm-3DD50MPxcIhwI6AnYUNrT-UPh86IHcKtNpQ5EFctRdZU2kI-F82y2v_=
Js5fgA_R_6ZK4elNPU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   35917969 36108019 36358050 36788109 37098143 37548162
            38088151 38438098 38977969 39207910 39287873 39197821
            38887788 38417777 37787784 36617839 36177867 35877913
            35917969=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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