Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1041
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 30 2025 14:25:25

ACUS11 KWNS 301425
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301424=20
TXZ000-301600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0924 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 301424Z - 301600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong to locally severe wind gusts (45-60 mph)
are possible with an eastward-moving storm cluster over the next
couple hours.

DISCUSSION...A decaying MCS has recently shown signs of localized
intensification as it tracks eastward toward the Upper TX Coast.
This is likely in response to a re-orientation of the leading gust
front to a north-south direction -- which is orthogonal to around 30
kt of effective shear. Given this favorable orientation, and modest
heating of a very moist boundary layer (upper 70s dewpoints), a
couple strong to locally severe gusts (45-60 mph) cannot be ruled
out over the next couple hours. Current thinking is that the overall
severe risk will remain too isolated for a watch.

...Weinman/Smith.. 05/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!__tfUHIhffD_DnllTc1NmMmxp-o-GMGSzbEPCYBD-_ON-pWQHfef_NHN_AjcL0OGFMDkZs7MJ=
4oOL1DQIMa83qgasaM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...

LAT...LON   29329627 29569612 29739577 29779526 29699487 29319476
            28669557 28499628 28719652 29329627=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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