Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 30 2025 12:51:48 ACUS01 KWNS 301250 SWODY1 SPC AC 301249 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. ....Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and Southeast... An Enhanced Risk for damaging thunderstorm winds has been introduced with this outlook for portions of eastern GA, much of SC and central/eastern NC. A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS today, as a vigorous embedded shortwave trough moves eastward from the lower Ohio Valley towards VA/NC. In response to this shortwave trough, a deepening surface cyclone will move eastward from central KY into the Mid Atlantic by evening. A trailing cold front will move across parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, and Virginia. Wind profiles across the warm sector of the deepening cyclone will be seasonably strong, but instability is expected to be tempered by weak midlevel lapse rates and substantial cloud cover. As large-scale ascent with the approaching shortwave trough develops across the warm sector, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and near the cold front and move generally east. Latest hi-res guidance suggests a predominantly linear mode across the Enhanced Risk area, where confidence regarding greater destabilization is highest. Damaging winds are expected to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado threat will exist primarily with bowing segments. Farther north across VA/MD/DE, confidence regarding storm mode is lower, with some guidance suggesting the potential for discrete/semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front. These storms would have the potential for severe wind/hail, and potentially pose a tornado risk with stronger/more sustained storms. If confidence increases regarding the expected coverage of severe storms in this area, then higher severe probabilities may be warranted with the 1630z Convective Outlook. Along the Gulf Coast from southeast TX into the western FL Panhandle, moderate/strong buoyancy and 25-30 kts of westerly shear will be present. Here, scattered clusters of strong/severe storms posing a risk for mainly damaging winds are expected to develop this afternoon. ....Eastern WI into northern IL/IN and Lake Michigan... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and strong northerly jet will move southward across parts of the Great Lakes during the afternoon and evening. Modest low-level moisture will limit buoyancy, but relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft will support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon and evening. Localized damaging gusts and hail could accompany the strongest storms. ....Eastern NM into Far West TX... Low-level southeasterly flow will maintain modest boundary-layer moisture across parts of NM and West TX. Moderate instability and 25 kt midlevel northwest flow could support a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and strong to severe gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Bunting/Bentley.. 05/30/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .