Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 30 2025 06:04:14 ACUS01 KWNS 300602 SWODY1 SPC AC 300600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS...AND SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. ....Mid Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS today, as a vigorous embedded shortwave trough moves eastward from the lower Ohio Valley towards VA/NC. In response to this shortwave trough, a deepening surface cyclone will move from eastward from central KY into the Mid Atlantic by this evening. A trailing cold front will move across parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, and Virginia. Wind profiles across the warm sector of the deepening cyclone will be seasonably strong, but instability is expected to remain rather modest, due to weak midlevel lapse rates and relatively muted diurnal heating. Increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development along/ahead of the front through the day. Some severe threat could accompany early-day convection from the eastern KY vicinity into WV and western VA. The primary severe threat is expected to develop during the afternoon and evening, as fast-moving cells and clusters spread eastward from the lee of the Appalachians/Blue Ridge to the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic coast. While a relatively broad region could see organized storms this afternoon and evening, some uncertainty remains regarding the dominant convective mode and hazards. Wind profiles will be favorable for discrete supercells, especially across parts of the Carolinas into Virginia. Any supercells would pose a threat of damaging wind, hail, and potentially a few tornadoes, especially in closer proximity to the deepening surface low. However, some guidance suggests primarily a cluster or linear mode, which would favor more of a damaging-wind threat, though isolated hail and a tornado would still be possible in this scenario. Greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more of a cluster/linear mode, and/or if stronger heating/destabilization ends up being realized. ....Eastern WI into northern IL/IN and Lake Michigan... A reinforcing mid/upper-level shortwave trough and strong northerly jet will move southward across parts of the Great Lakes during the afternoon and evening. Modest low-level moisture will limit buoyancy, but relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft will support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon and evening. Localized severe gusts and hail could accompany the strongest storms as they move south-southeastward. ....Eastern NM into Far West TX... Low-level southeasterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture across parts of NM and west TX. Moderate instability and modest midlevel northwesterlies could support a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. ...Dean.. 05/30/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .