Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 30 2025 04:35:07 AWUS01 KWNH 300434 FFGMPD TXZ000-300900- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0334 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1234 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025 Areas affected...west-central TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 300433Z - 300900Z SUMMARY...Localized to scattered areas of flash flooding will remain possible over the next 3-4 hours across west-central TX. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr will be likely with spotty rates of 2 to 3+ possible through 08Z. DISCUSSION...04Z radar imagery showed an elongated MCS over west-central TX, extending from south of FST to near DYS and COM. Southeasterly low level flow of 15-25 kt was located from southern TX into the convective complex with the stronger winds located closer to the Rio Grande and West TX, dropping off in magnitude with eastward extent. The source region of the southeasterly winds contained 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.3 to 1.8 inches of PWAT. Sufficient shear for organized cells was also present along and ahead of the MCS via 04Z SPC mesoanalysis data. While a cold front was dropping southward across the region, a cold pool also appears to be getting better organized with numerous outflow boundaries preceding the convective axis, with the MCS following a general movement toward the SE, into the moist and unstable inflow. This general movement is expected to continue over the next few hours with embedded peak hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches, although occasional embedded higher rates will be possible where brief west to east training develops. Training will be most likely along the southwestern flank of the complex where line orientation is more favored to align with the mean steering flow. The southwestern edge of the complex, located near the stronger low level flow, may also favor thunderstorm development just ahead of the advancing line due to the presence of the Hill Country terrain and a relative max in uninhibited instability as seen on SPC mesoanalysis data over the middle/lower Rio Grande Valley. Localized hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches cannot be ruled out along with 2-4 inches of additional rainfall through 10 or 11Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_LpUogQ6Na1GcCFPqH-Dhg9munRKPS1caZXVrmsRNKw3kWSPq4O3a-gnM-aWAy0nVp1= PPk98tAFMXArJPTzGsynfwg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 31979894 31939840 31599793 31199776 30469818=20 29299908 28990028 29480148 29890315 30550324=20 30790266 30850174 31030123 31470050 31700001=20 31939945=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .