Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 30 2025 01:03:22 ACUS01 KWNS 300102 SWODY1 SPC AC 300100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TX... ....SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, significant severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of west and central Texas. Strong to locally severe storms are also possible tonight from parts of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. ....Parts of central/west TX... An intense supercell is moving southward this evening across the TX Permian Basin, with other cells noted into parts of the TX Big Country, in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Evolution of convection into later tonight across the region is somewhat uncertain, but if additional development can occur this evening along the front, then some upscale growth will be possible, potentially spreading a somewhat greater threat for severe gusts southeastward into south-central TX later tonight. In the short term, ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of very large hail and severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph). Some tornado threat could also develop with supercells near the surface boundary. ....AR into parts of the TN Valley... As a shortwave moves through the base of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough tonight, a gradually deepening surface low will move from eastern AR into southern KY. Scattered storms are expected to develop and move eastward in conjunction with the shortwave trough and surface low. Instability will likely remain relatively modest, but increasingly favorable wind profiles could support development of a couple supercells, with at least an isolated threat for all severe hazards. ....Southeast/Carolinas... Stronger convection has mostly become confined to near the FL East Coast and parts of NC. Modestly favorable deep-layer shear in advance of a shortwave trough moving across GA could still support redevelopment of a strong storm or two through the evening. ...Dean.. 05/30/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .