Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 29 2025 21:58:13 AWUS01 KWNH 292156 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-300355- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0332 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 555 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Areas affected...Southeast NM...Western and Central TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 292155Z - 300355Z SUMMARY...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms over southeast NM and southwest TX will continue to generally expand in coverage over the next few hours. A gradual increase in heavy rainfall rates is expected as this activity organizes further this evening, and this may result in isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The late-afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows expanding convective clusters over southeast NM and southwest TX as strong diurnal heating and corresponding boundary layer instability work in tandem with relatively moist low-level southeast flow and localized orographic ascent. All of this is occurring south of a cold front dropping southward down across the southern High Plains which will be an additional catalyst for convective development over the next several hours. MLCAPE values over much of central and western TX in particular are quite elevated with values of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg, although the latest RAP analysis does still show some pockets of MLCIN extending north/south from the Midland vicinity down through Fort Stockton. Any remaining CIN should gradually erode over the next couple of hours as additional surface heating occurs, and this will help set the stage for upstream convection consolidating over southeast NM and southwest TX to then advance off to the east and grow upscale into the very unstable/moist airmass pooled downstream. Aside from favorable thermodynamics, strong shear parameters are yielding a number of supercell thunderstorms already, and this threat will continue in the near-term as the activity consolidates into a least a broken MCS by this evening. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and also some nearby right-entrance region upper jet support will also be key players in driving the convective threat well through the evening hours for areas farther east across western and central TX. REFS/HREF suites of guidance show rather strong support for the stronger storms to produce rainfall rates well into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range. A combination of slow cell-motions and cell-merger activity in the early stages of this evening's MCS development will support some rainfall totals reaching as high as 3 to 4 inches. Both the REFS and HREF suites show elevated 3-hour FFG exceedance probabilities over portions of central and western TX this evening, and thus given the setup, isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5si01hQNLYso09PYyybNDkMQUC5-N07Hx6vv7dCK0q22RE8_8YRsAdKgvOOJojIZqJpv= _YVjbvBsuNH30x8CwGF0IC8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FWD...LUB...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 33620275 33440119 32859949 31929899 31149913=20 30639985 30650167 31080354 31690432 32660445=20 33330383=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .