Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 29 2025 20:06:59 ACUS01 KWNS 292006 SWODY1 SPC AC 292005 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS TO THE HILL COUNTRY... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, significant severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes remain possible with severe with thunderstorms this afternoon and evening from the Texas-New Mexico border eastward into central Texas. Thunderstorms producing scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon across parts of the Southeast. ....20z Update Southern Plains... Convective development underway across the southern High Plains of eastern NM and west TX is expected to continue maturing through this afternoon. Supercells, with an initial risk for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes remain likely. Upscale growth into one or more MCS/strong clusters is expected this evening as large-scale ascent overspreads the Southern Plains. Recent hi-res guidance and more widespread convective development over the High Plains suggest somewhat greater coverage/persistence of severe storms is possible across central TX and the Big Bend region this evening. Have opted to expand the Slight Risk across central/south-central TX, where damaging gusts and hail potential, associated with the expanding cluster/clusters of severe storms, may extend eastward this evening into the early overnight hours. Farther north, severe probabilities have been trimmed along the Red River vicinity of southwest OK and western North TX where persistent cloud cover along a slow-moving cold front have limited destabilization. Ahead of the front, weak low-level warm advection may support additional storms this evening. A conditional risk of large hail and damaging winds remains in place with any sustained convective clusters able to develop. ....Gulf Coast and Southeast... Persistent cloud cover and convective overturning from an ongoing broad cluster of embedded thunderstorms will continue to spread eastward along the Gulf Coast and Southeast states this afternoon. Sporadic damaging gusts will remain possible with the stronger embedded cores. However, the lack of stronger surface heating and convective overturning has largely negated the western edge of the severe risk from west-central GA, into AL and the western FL Panhandle. To the east, some clearing and diurnal heating has allowed a more focused corridor of destabilization to develop along the immediate coast from the Savannah River in east GA to southeastern NC. This larger buoyancy, overlapping with strengthening westerly mid-level flow, should support one or more loosely organized clusters capable of producing scattered damaging winds and perhaps isolated hail across the coastal plain and immediate coast into this evening. Have adjusted the Slight Risk area to better capture the potential for damaging gusts with ongoing/expected storms. Otherwise, see the prior discussion for additional information. ...Lyons.. 05/29/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025/ ....Southern Plains... Visible satellite imagery indicates strong heating will occur south of a cold front currently draped from east-central NM into the southern portion of the TX Panhandle/South Plains. Relatively moist low-level easterly flow with 60s deg F surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates, will support MLCAPE up to 2500-3000 J/kg by mid/late afternoon and 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Even though large-scale forcing associated with an upper trough over the Midwest and central Plains will remain modest with southward extent into the southern High Plains, scattered thunderstorm development is forecast by mid-late afternoon near the front and across southeast NM, with increasing coverage and clustering possible this evening. Models shows initially supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps some tornado risk early in the convective life cycle across parts of eastern NM into portions of the TX South Plains. The aforementioned upscale growth/clustering is expected and depicted in several recent CAMs, suggestive of a corridor of severe gusts (perhaps locally in the 70-85 mph range) mainly this evening. Farther east, most guidance depicts more isolated coverage of thunderstorms near the front from southern OK into north TX. However, moderate to strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a conditional risk of large hail and damaging wind with any sustained convection in this region. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible from the Raton Mesa vicinity southward across eastern NM, within a weakly unstable but favorably sheared environment. The strongest cores may pose a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ....Southeast... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this morning along the Gulf Coast will continue east across adjacent portions of southern AL/FL Panhandle into southern GA. This activity is immediately ahead of an eastward-migrating shortwave trough over the northern Gulf Coast. Extensive cloud debris and some convective overturning this morning will act to limit the overall severe threat across the FL Panhandle/southern AL. Farther east and northeast, stronger destabilization has occurred through midday with temperatures rising into the 80s/lower 90s deg F and dewpoints in the low-mid 70s. MLCAPE increasing to around 1500-2000 J/kg is forecast over the coastal plain where stronger heating has occurred already this morning. Strong to severe convection may either persist from the ongoing morning activity, or initiate within the weakly capped environment across parts of GA into SC. Low-level flow will likely remain rather weak, but some strengthening of westerly mid-level winds should support one or more loosely organized clusters capable of producing scattered damaging winds and perhaps isolated hail. ....Ozarks into the Mid-South... Some low-level moistening is expected through the day from parts of northern AR/southern MO into the Mid-South, in association with a approaching mid/upper-level trough and developing weak surface cyclone. Relatively modest heating and weak lapse rates aloft may tend to limit buoyancy, but ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough may support scattered thunderstorm development along/ahead of a front from late afternoon into the evening. Have expanded low-severe probabilities farther east into south-central KY and Middle TN where recent guidance shows sufficient destabilization may occur late tonight. The strengthening wind profiles during this timeframe ahead of the mid-level disturbance may support a conditional risk for a few supercells capable of all-severe hazards. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. 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