Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 29 2025 19:52:30 ACUS03 KWNS 291952 SWODY3 SPC AC 291951 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TEXAS RIO GRANDE VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday from parts of North Carolina northward into the Mid-Atlantic, and across parts of the Rio Grande Valley of Texas. ....Mid-Atlantic States... The primary cold front and preceding moist air mass will likely have pushed into the western Atlantic by Saturday morning. However, weak post-frontal buoyancy should develop during the day as lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a modestly moist air mass. This could lead to some strong low-topped storms by afternoon, particularly along/south of a secondary wind shift/weak front. It appears that some potential for marginally severe hail and wind will exist, mainly Saturday afternoon until around sunset. ....Texas Rio Grande Valley... Northwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday across the Rio Grande Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from south Texas northwestward along and near the Rio Grande River. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated thunderstorms could develop as surface temperatures and surface-based buoyancy peak in the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ....South-central Plains/Ozarks... While confidence in forecast specifics are not high at the Day 3 time frame, severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. Some potential will exist for thunderstorm development on the periphery of the upper ridge, potentially including MCS development Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This currently appears most probable across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, and moderate buoyancy and modest vertical shear could be conducive to some severe storms in this scenario. ...Guyer.. 05/29/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .