Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 29 2025 08:12:48

ACUS48 KWNS 290812
SWOD48
SPC AC 290811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
On Sunday and Monday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward
across the north-central U.S. A low-level jet is forecast to develop
in the High Plains on Sunday with this feature strengthening on
Monday, as a trough moves through the Rockies. In response,
low-level moisture will increase across the Great Plains, allowing
for moderate destabilization across much of the region during the
day. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected Monday from
parts of the southern and central High Plains, northeastward along a
cold front into the Dakotas. Although deep-layer shear is not
forecast to be particular strong, the models do suggest that strong
instability will be possible across parts of the Dakotas by late
Monday afternoon. This likely would support a large hail and
wind-damage threat.

....Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
On Tuesday, the shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move
eastward into the southern and central High Plains. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon from the mid Missouri
Valley southward into eastern Kansas and east-central Oklahoma. In
addition to moderate/strong instability, large-scale ascent and
moderate deep-layer shear should support a severe threat during the
afternoon and evening. Supercells would be possible, with isolated
large hail and wind damage. Tornadoes could also occur.

On Wednesday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley, and southward into the southern Plains.
Mid-level flow near the front will be southwesterly. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints should be from the 60s to the mid 70s F,
which will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Although
deep-layer shear is not expected to be that strong near the front,
the instability should be enough for isolated severe storms in areas
where strong surface heating occurs. Predictability is low
concerning where the greater severe threat will be.

On Thursday, the front is forecast to move into the Southeast.
Thunderstorm development will be possible by afternoon along and
ahead of the front, from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into
the Gulf Coast states. Although moderate instability should be in
place in some areas by afternoon, deep-layer shear is forecast to be
weak enough to keep any severe threat localized.

...Broyles.. 05/29/2025

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