Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 29 2025 07:28:15

AWUS01 KWNH 290726
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0330
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Areas affected...central to east-central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290723Z - 291150Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible along coastal
portions of MS/AL and the FL Panhandle over the next 3-4 hours.
Efficient rainfall production from training of relatively small
heavy rain cores may result in hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches.

DISCUSSION...07Z radar imagery across southeastern LA into MS, AL
and the FL Panhandle showed scattered thunderstorms with embedded
remnant MCVs and/or mid-level vorticity maxima. A vorticity max
was located just north of Terrebonne Bay with thunderstorms
expanding downstream near the southeastern LA coast and south of
Mobile Bay in the vicinity of composite outflow.

Radar imagery and surface observations indicated one area of
convectively induced outflow aligned from SW to NE from the
western FL Panhandle into the northern Gulf, with SPC mesoanalysis
data showing 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE offshore (south of the
composite outflow) and CIN northwest of the CAPE gradient. As the
mid-level vorticity max advances northeastward over the next 3-6
hours, advection of low level moisture is forecast by the RAP to
erode CIN for locations near the coast from southeastern LA into
the western FL Panhandle.

Mean cell motions following the deeper-layer mean wind may support
localized training into the western FL Panhandle as outflow slowly
advances eastward over the next couple of hours. In addition, CIN
eroding back to the west over coastal MS/AL may result in the
development of thunderstorms by 12Z with some minor strengthening
of 850 mb winds from the south, increasing the potential for short
term training. Overlap of these potential heavy rainfall cores
with urban areas or other locations with poor draining could
result in localized flash flooding.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-onIruAfz0kgXWF8ijzMkaFARaWx5CvNBZZTMB6RRdhNPFGvFlPa1E_RhTYXf0DvV2QZ=
3wmPgftQxLpbu4y1GsAc9ms$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   30898675 30748582 30308521 29758554 29948658=20
            29468803 28718932 29139002 30348928 30848799=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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