Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1033
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 29 2025 02:16:51

ACUS11 KWNS 290215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290214=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-290345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0914 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...northwest OK and the eastern TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345...

Valid 290214Z - 290345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345
continues.

SUMMARY...Primary severe threat area through late evening is
expected to evolve from parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle into a
greater portion of northwest Oklahoma. A mix of severe wind and hail
is anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Leading storm clusters consisting of a couple
supercells along the north-northeast end and outflow-dominated
convection to its southwest will likely persist east-southeast
through late evening. This activity should be sustained by a
moderate low-level jet, as sampled by VNX and AMA VWP data, with a
residual plume of modest buoyancy emanating north from western north
TX. A mix of sporadic severe wind and hail should remain the primary
hazards amid modest storm motion of 25-30 kts. This activity still
seems likely to remain largely separate from an upstream corridor of
elevated storms across southern KS, but may eventually merge along
the northeast portion. Given nocturnal weakening of instability and
increasing MLCIN across the TX Panhandle, the overall severe threat
should become more confined into OK with a gradual weakening of
intensity tonight.

...Grams.. 05/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-J8eKBN-DMLxD1GmR9cxRHJ-_I7mkhHckkoGx5uytZw2RQ9qtK_N42nnlimodm4_WxhwkANJ8=
KXuVhoEMFU7H3N4BkU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   36340070 36350004 36479957 36719902 36769840 36299810
            35879826 35609848 35269884 35219981 35430059 35660104
            35830115 36340070=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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