Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 29 2025 00:57:23

AWUS01 KWNH 290056
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-290555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0329
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...Far Southeast CO...Southwest KS...TX/OK
Panhandles and Northwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290055Z - 290555Z

SUMMARY...Expanding clusters of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to organize and grow upscale this evening. A combination
of cell-mergers and some localized cell-training may lead to
isolated areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows expanding clusters
of cold-topped convection across the central High Plains, with
multiple supercells and some linear-mode activity impacting
southeast CO, southwest KS and down into the TX/OK Panhandles. The
convection is organizing in a moderately unstable and sheared
environment with MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg and effective
bulk shear values of as much as 40 to 50+ kts.

Digging shortwave energy across the central High Plains is
providing divergent flow aloft with DPVA in place, and this
coupled with favorable thermodynamics and a nocturnally enhanced
low-level jet overrunning a warm front should favor additional
expansion and organization of convective clusters over the next
few hours.

The latest experimental WoFS along with multiple 18Z HREF members
suggest cell-merger activity gradually favoring a more progressive
MCS across the region with a southwest to northeast orientation by
late this evening. This MCS evolution, which will involve a
continued concern for some supercell activity, will drop
southeastward across southwest to south-central KS and eventually
well down across northwest OK which will include impacts also
still across the TX/OK Panhandles.

Rainfall rates with the stronger supercells may reach 1.5 to 2
inches/hour, with some storm totals locally of 2 to 4 inches where
a combination of any cell-mergers or brief cell-training occurs.
Aside from the ongoing severe weather hazards, there may be a
sufficient rainfall component to drive an isolated threat for
flash flooding over the next several hours.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-hLE2nALBPq_k75a7PQkrSTGlnvY3J-WVgNMyqcZNdrtRJza5dl7_i_QeP7bai5bMCC6=
fDeVPRWy7ZM4KgnGyLW8KTc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38269894 37599771 36119800 35529937 35810157=20
            36730327 37610361 37910202 37860098=20

=3D =3D =3D
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