Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 28 2025 19:52:41 ACUS01 KWNS 281952 SWODY1 SPC AC 281951 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of the southern/central Plains. Isolated wind damage may occur across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. ....20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook on the western edge for ongoing convection. Scattered severe storms, currently developing across eastern CO and northeast NM, will gradually expand in coverage/intensity eastward across the southern and central High Plains this afternoon/evening. Supercells with all hazards are probable ahead of MCS development and continuation of severe potential downstream over the southern Plains tonight. Across the Southeast states, sporadic damaging gusts are possible as several clusters of strong to severe storms continue eastward along a broad frontal zone. The primary focus for locally higher damaging gust potential remains across portions of the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast regions through this evening. No changes were made to the risk areas over western and central TX, see the prior outlook for more information. ...Lyons.. 05/28/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025/ ....Eastern Colorado/Kansas to western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles... A closed upper low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will drift slowly eastward today. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded on the western periphery of this low will move southeastward across the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Modest low-level moisture return should occur over parts of the southern/central High Plains ahead of this shortwave trough, with a narrow zone of weak to moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop across eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/northern Texas Panhandles by mid-afternoon. Multiple thunderstorms should initiate across eastern Colorado/southwest Nebraska and vicinity by 18-21Z as large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough overspreads the developing warm sector. Weak low-level flow is forecast to veer to west-northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height through mid-levels. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should support mainly supercell structures, with an initial threat for large to isolated very large hail. With time, a bowing complex should evolve from parts of western/southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with a greater threat for scattered severe winds apparent this evening. A few tornadoes may also occur in a zone either side of the Colorado/Kansas border into southwest Kansas, where low-level shear/SRH should maximize early this evening. ....Western North Texas to North/Central Texas... A remnant MCV over west Texas will drift slowly eastward today towards north/central Texas. At least some destabilization will occur through this afternoon along/near a remnant surface front draped generally west to east over central Texas. Most high-resolution guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-afternoon in close proximity to the MCV. Modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies associated with this feature should support enough deep-layer shear for updraft organization and some supercell/large hail potential initially. With time, a small bowing cluster may develop and pose more of a severe wind threat through the late afternoon and evening as convection spreads generally east-southeastward into central Texas before eventually weakening. A tornado or two may also occur, as low-level shear will be modestly enhanced by the MCV. ....Far West Texas and Southeast New Mexico... This region will remain generally displaced to the west/behind large-scale ascent associated with an eastward-moving MCV over west Texas, and upper troughing over the north-central states. Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop through peak afternoon heating across the higher terrain of the Davis/Guadalupe Mountains and vicinity with large hail as the primary hazard. ....Upper Texas Coast to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A loosely organized complex of storms across east Texas and upper Texas coast should drift eastward, with additional development/intensification this afternoon preceding it to the east. While locally damaging winds will be possible across a broad regional extent, a somewhat more focused potential for wind damage may exist within a very moist air mass and instability gradient (largely influenced by storms in prior days) across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .