Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 28 2025 08:48:20

AWUS01 KWNH 280848
FFGMPD
TXZ000-281300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0325
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280846Z - 281300Z

Summary...Deep convection has expanded in coverage across portions
of central and south Texas over the past couple hours, with
several areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates noted with some of the
activity.  Flash flooding is possible - especially if heavier
downpours can fall in urbanized/sensitive areas through 13Z/8a CDT.

Discussion...While a mature MCS over portions of south Texas has
struggled to maintain its organization this morning, newer
convection has materialized in a cluster just northwest of San
Antonio and along the Texas Gulf Coast near Corpus Christi.  The
environment supporting these storms is plenty moist and unstable
(1.75 inch PW and 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, respectively), supporting deep
convection with efficient rain rates.  Weak low-level shear has
lead to mainly outflow-dominant storms, although some organization
has been noted with the cluster northwest of San Antonio.  Mergers
associated with this activity has enabled spots of 1.5 inch/hr
rain rates (estimated per MRMS) to develop.

The eastward propagation of thunderstorms, presence of steep lapse
rates aloft, and lack of convective inhibition suggests that many
areas across central/south Texas should experience at least an
inch of rainfall this morning.  For most areas, these rates will
fall well shy of FFG thresholds, although a few spots near
Austin/San Antonio and Corpus Christi will still be susceptible to
an urban flash flood threat.  This threat should exist on an
isolated/spotty basis through at least 13Z or so - gradually
ending from west to east.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_zVP6hF3iYFwotOqwzfxjbaM4iRIAS-qmrPXai5iArBBej1q5ky8zmqD8pIE-b7TUuc9=
EWrwTWNsgohZZ7wVOulWDCE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   31329834 30949672 29969614 28719630 27239720=20
            26279746 26349833 26949929 27749958 29179963=20
            30979922=20

=3D =3D =3D
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