Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 28 2025 05:20:05 ACUS01 KWNS 280518 SWODY1 SPC AC 280516 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the central and southern Plains. Isolated wind damage may occur across the Gulf coast/Southeast. ....CO/KS/OK... Evening water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough over southern Manitoba. This trough will track southward across the northern Plains on Wednesday morning, and into CO/KS by evening. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds will transport moisture northward along a retreating warm front, leading to a corridor of moist/unstable air from northeast CO across western KS into western OK. Thunderstorms will develop over northeast CO by late afternoon and track southeastward into western/central KS, and build southward into the TX Panhandle and western OK through the evening. Forecast soundings show strong low-level and deep layer shear favorable for a few supercells capable of very large hail and a tornado or two. Storms are expected to congeal through the evening into a bowing line, with an increased risk of damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH may be needed in later updates if guidance continues to build support for this scenario. ....Central TX... 00z model guidance is consistent on the development of a mid-level MCV associated with the cluster of thunderstorms currently over southeast NM. This feature will drift slowly eastward through the day and aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over west-central TX. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of large hail. ....Southwest TX... Diurnal heating and ample low-level moisture will result in scattered intense thunderstorms over southeast NM and west TX. A few supercells capable of large hail are expected. ...Hart/Thornton.. 05/28/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .