Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1016
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 28 2025 00:42:11

ACUS11 KWNS 280041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280041=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-280145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338...

Valid 280041Z - 280145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of
southwestern Texas with potential for large hail and severe wind.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing across the Davis
Mountains to the Stockton and Edwards Plateaus this evening. Hail as
large as 1.25" has been reported. Overall, storm mode has been
becoming less organized. Nonetheless, storms continue to pose some
risk for large hail at times and severe wind, given the steep lapse
rates and dew point depressions.=20

Storms should continue to develop and slowly drift eastward and
northward through the rest of the evening. Storm are approaching the
northern end of WW338 in the next hour, with remnant outflow
observed across the area near Midland which may aid in further
development/intensification. A local extension may be needed to
cover the threat.

...Thornton.. 05/28/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9zgIS5iEMsnjXv3NCQqFUJ1DbJUHufHyM3vdkerxd15jwZe_1vV4fkSyrDtlrOb6OsMLKsZRF=
5EJutP09_bYLIbDZjw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30970421 31750387 32010328 31990247 31890161 31550119
            31090098 30700093 30050086 29560087 29130102 29170109
            29500142 29660182 29670219 29670247 29490271 29440292
            29450305 30970421=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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