Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1015
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 28 2025 00:36:13

ACUS11 KWNS 280035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280035=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-280200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Areas affected...southwest AL...far southeast MS...far western FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339...

Valid 280035Z - 280200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail remain
possible with a short linear cluster moving southeast towards a
portion of the central Gulf Coast through late evening.

DISCUSSION...Despite convection consolidating into a short-line
segment across the southeast MS-southwest AL border area, storm
intensity has likely remained sub-severe over the past hour. Poor
mid-level lapse rates, 4.5-5.0 C/km from 700-500 mb, sampled
upstream by the 00Z JAN/LIX soundings are impacting updraft strength
despite the presence of mean-mixing ratios around 16 g/kg near the
coast. Potential still exists for this segment to intensify as it
likely tracks more southeastward, with renewed updrafts possible
along the southwestern flank of the convective outflow which would
pose a risk for marginally severe hail.

...Grams/Mosier.. 05/28/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4tCUuMyJyGCIZ7HTaprrYIcwPsBKHTQ0gsRhPmV-ykddbKQhVzs71WgJa7ugnA9u3XnFS07NI=
7_-alx1XXQ1lQsdW6c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   31878799 31898771 31798722 31568693 31238675 30738685
            30448732 30278882 30728919 31368861 31878799=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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