Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 27 2025 19:23:06

ACUS03 KWNS 271922
SWODY3
SPC AC 271922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern
High Plains into the Southeast.

....Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression
Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the
mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday.  A reinforcing
cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association
with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for
strong-severe thunderstorm development.  Storm coverage and timing
are in question along the front, which suggests low severe
probabilities are appropriate.  Given the expected thermodynamic
environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable
vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become
warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX).

Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a
remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the
Southeast (AL to GA) during the day.  Predictability is modest at
best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update.

...Thompson.. 05/27/2025

$$

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