Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 27 2025 05:45:56 ACUS01 KWNS 270544 SWODY1 SPC AC 270542 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ....Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ....Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ...Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .