Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1002
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 27 2025 03:06:48

ACUS11 KWNS 270306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270306=20
OKZ000-270430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Areas affected...west-central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270306Z - 270430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A pair of well-established supercells may continue to pose
a large hail threat across west-central Oklahoma through about
midnight, before likely subsiding overnight.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell that started producing
significant severe hail over Roger Mills County has now moved into
Custer County, with a separate strong supercell over Dewey County.
This activity has seemingly overachieved relative to the anticipated
environment to the south of an MCV now in southern KS. Given how
well-established this pair of supercells has become, the moist
low-levels sampled in the 00Z OUN sounding suggest that MLCIN will
remain slow to increase. But decreasing MLCAPE within the weak
buoyancy range (below 1000 J/kg) and lack of appreciable low-level
ascent do suggest that the large hail threat should subside
overnight.

...Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9zPJLKs0Rlz8c6J70WJtRxlGfDiOpzp12ElmCuQxvR4Jon-6iPhnR2CkPFeZ6Wy0S3bAFEIbo=
u8INl-V84SKNGSitdU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   36019886 35839813 35519784 34979797 34789838 34829867
            34979905 35309938 35589947 36019886=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.