Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 26 2025 19:36:26 AWUS01 KWNH 261936 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-270000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0321 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 335 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025 Areas affected...north-central TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 261935Z - 270000Z Summary...Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible across portions of north-central TX over the next few hours. These rains may overlap with portions of northern TX which received heavy rain over the past 24 hours, allowing for increased sensitivity to additional rainfall. Discussion...1915Z satellite and radar trends showed a small cluster of thunderstorms expanding just west of the DFW Metroplex near a quasi-stationary front, which roughly paralleled I-20 from near DYS to TYR. Infrared cloud tops have been cooling and coverage has been increasing over the past hour. The storms were located along the northeastern gradient in instability with about 500 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Meanwhile, locations to the east had less than 100 J/kg and locations to the southwest were over 2000 J/kg (via 19Z SPC mesoanalysis data). RAP model analyses and VAD wind data showed a narrow corridor of stronger 850 mb winds of 20-25 kt, extending from near KGRK to the NNW toward I-20, intersecting the frontal boundary and resulting in lift. Short term forecasts from the RAP suggest the narrow corridor of 850 mb winds will continue to provide lift near the front and resulting rain-induced outflow near the I-20 corridor, with mean storm movement toward the northeast to east. This motion will likely allow for overlap of heavy rain into portions of northern TX which picked up 2-4 inches of rain late Sunday night into this morning through 00Z. The addition of another 2-3 inches over the next 3-4 hours may result in renewed flash flood concerns for the region. While there is a definitive minimum in instability to the east of the DFW Metroplex, some replenishment of instability is likely in the short term with low level moisture returning, though there remains uncertainty in rainfall intensity to the east of the Metroplex through early evening. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_dt3v-0nB4xmvphN9Jwlc0LLUhse8iUyxyzBXlyKwHHBZXF6S7K0ppk9oS_HBZ_2kSMG= GPYd2mnbsg9eAIsBr7HlxvA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV... ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 33969720 33859654 33799567 33559535 33159522=20 32409540 32059635 32419755 32699844 33029889=20 33419879 33759829 33899779=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .