Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 26 2025 08:41:05

AWUS01 KWNH 260840
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-261438-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0319
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
439 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025

Areas affected...north/east Texas, north/central Louisiana,
southwest Mississippi, southwest Arkansas, far southeastern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260838Z - 261438Z

Summary...Flash flood potential should gradually increase across
the discussion area as convective complexes traverse the region
through 14Z/9am CDT this morning.

Discussion...Flash flood potential is expected to concentrate
along a couple of axes through 14Z this morning - 1) along and
just ahead of an expansive linear complex extending from McCurtain
County, OK west-southwestward through Mineral Wells, TX and 2)
along a stalling outflow boundary extending from near Shreveport,
LA east-southeastward to near Natchez, MS.  Texas convection so
far has been progressive, but cell motions have been slow enough
for 1-2 inch/hr rain rates to materialize near the Dallas/Fort
Worth Metroplex and pose primarily urban flash flood potential.=20
These cells were gradually moving toward areas of higher FFGs
(from central into eastern Texas), suggestive of a potentially
lessening flash flood risk over time and with southeastward extent
despite abundant moisture and instability in the pre-convective
airmass.  Local cell mergers and should also play a role in
enhancing rain rates, and at least a few instances of flash
flooding are likely especially in sensitive/urbanized areas.

Farther east, a southward-moving outflow boundary from prior
convection has stalled, with vigorous redevelopment along it
boosting rain rates into the 1-2.5 inch/hr range in a few spots
(including Shreveport Metro).  The stalling boundary raises
concern for prolonged heavy rain rates and localized totals
exceeding 5 inches in spots through 14Z this morning - posing a
threat for flash flooding especially in urban and sensitive
locations.  Portions of Louisiana (including Shreveport) could
experience heavy rain from both the stalled outflow and the
upstream Texas linear complex this morning.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7zTWtTEGey_T9pVK-D0XrnPNObWz31bcJxabnfL-kpgwsLFc2E_qWCmgoRwABtmOC2p9=
aDJ8e16_mH28YGprD8x8_pc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...OUN...
SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34389506 33999362 33159168 32049056 31249044=20
            30779125 30869408 30839796 31609862 32729881=20
            33249793 33919582=20

=3D =3D =3D
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