Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 26 2025 06:00:20 ACUS02 KWNS 260600 SWODY2 SPC AC 260558 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected on Tuesday from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The greatest threat of large hail and wind damage will be over parts of southwest and south-central Texas. A locally greater threat for wind damage could also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley. ....Southern Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains from a westerly direction across much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into central and southwest Texas. Surface dewpoints near and to the south of the front will be in the lower to mid 70s F, which will contribute to strong destabilization in some areas by midday. As low-level convergence becomes focused near the boundary in the afternoon, thunderstorm development is expected. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move southeastward across southwest and south-central Texas, where a severe threat appears likely. NAM forecast soundings late Tuesday afternoon near the instability maximum have MLCAPE peaking near 2500 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 35 knots, which should support supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible, with supercells that develop intense cores. As the cluster expands in coverage, and moves eastward into south-central Texas, a wind-damage threat is also expected. Further eastward into southeast Texas, an MCS is forecast to move away from the area during the morning. It its wake, a slightly more stable airmass should keep convective development more isolated during the afternoon. A marginal severe threat will be possible with any cells that can initiate and persist as the airmass recovers. ....Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains southwesterly over the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a front is forecast to be located from the vicinity of southeast Texas extending east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. A moist and unstable airmass is expected near and to the south of the boundary over the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast. From the morning into early afternoon, a linear MCS is forecast to move from southeast Texas into south-central Mississippi. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the MCS, a wind-damage threat is expected to develop as the line gradually intensifies. Some models suggest that strong instability will develop across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley by midday, which would support a locally greater wind-damage threat. Further to the east, moderate instability will likely develop over parts Alabama and Georgia by afternoon. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, steep low-level lapse rates during the afternoon may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts. ...Broyles.. 05/26/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .