Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 25 2025 22:55:46

AWUS01 KWNH 252255
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0316
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
654 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...lower MS Valley into northern AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252254Z - 260400Z

Summary...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible from near
the Arklatex, across the lower MS Valley into northern AL through
04Z. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr are likely along with 2-4
inch totals (locally near 5 inches possible).

Discussion...2230Z visible satellite and regional radar imagery
showed a line of thunderstorms which extended from western TN into
south-central AR, preceded by an elongated outflow boundary. An
apparent MCV was identified over western TN, near the northern
edge of the convective line. Scattered thunderstorms were ongoing
south of the outflow from southern AR into north-central MS. To
the east, another (slower moving) outflow boundary was located
southwest and then west of a remnant MCV tracking through eastern
TN. South of these outflows, the environment was very moist and
unstable with 1500 to 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE and PWATs locally over 2
inches in southern AR via 22Z SPC mesoanalysis data.

While the main outflow boundary surging southward through AR and
northern MS is expected to maintain a progressive movement toward
the south, there could be some slowing/stalling along the western
flank. Merging with cells preceding the outflow along with areas
of brief training, especially along the western flank, may support
a few areas of flash flooding over the next 3-5 hours. Aiding with
ascent should be an increasingly diffluent regime in the upper
levels along with divergence within the right entrance region of a
jet max positioned to the north over the Midwest. 2 to 4 inches of
rain (locally near 5 inches) is expected.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6oiodd3oUl6JW9t67JbcQCyOAXe5gHWIBW-bLHuaMJFwDNk8cDhKO4M-r4CWJz4tySwc=
8UnR3zBxEXGV4cwA4eyWoC0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34998848 34888737 34818590 34198568 33718629=20
            33198763 32688876 32319080 32209226 32579389=20
            33129449 33759459 34249386 34429268 34529159=20
            34979006=20

=3D =3D =3D
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