Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0977
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 25 2025 22:49:46

ACUS11 KWNS 252249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252249=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-260045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...Oklahoma Panhandle...southern
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 252249Z - 260045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat to increase through the evening with
additional thunderstorm development.

DISCUSSION...An ejecting wave and increasing forcing for ascent will
lead to an increase in coverage of thunderstorms across the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and eastern New Mexico. Surface objective
analysis suggests MLCIN remains in place. Further cooling aloft will
aid in reducing MLCIN amid MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg and steep
low to mid-level lapse rates. Deep layer shear around 50 kts will
support organized supercells capable of large to very large hail and
damaging winds. A watch will be needed to cover this risk soon.

...Thornton/Mosier.. 05/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9KlSkco9ERb_hOP1YUUfZ8k7G6Hy2DTtxYKHpHo8K4wcD79c1a6n3VW5tZhGo8Q2DYJMYiteA=
LIj5GIG1VeHPsR1UsM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35930437 36400424 36830375 37040279 37080229 37060116
            36970028 36510003 35370003 35270009 34810011 34670053
            34620165 34680279 34730315 35020345 35520411 35590418
            35930437=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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