Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 25 2025 22:15:34 AWUS01 KWNH 252214 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-260330- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0315 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 613 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 Areas affected...northwestern TX into central OK Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 252211Z - 260330Z Summary...Localized to scattered areas of flash flooding are expected from portions of northwestern TX into central OK through 03Z as a result of slow moving and training of thunderstorms. Peak rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected, although locally higher totals cannot be ruled out. Discussion...22Z radar imagery across TX and OK showed a few scattered thunderstorms over the southeastern TX Panhandle near a quasi-stationary front and just east of the southern Caprock Escarpment. Additional thunderstorms were noted over south-central OK, near/north of the front. Large MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4000+ J/kg were estimated via the 21Z SPC mesoanalysis along with sufficient shear for organized cells and PWATs that ranged from ~0.7 inches near the I-27 corridor to 1.7 inches in east-central OK. A slow moving cell over Motley and Dickens counties has had a history of backbuilding toward the west along the boundary and additional cells were forming within the unstable environment nearby. Additional thunderstorms are likely to develop over the next few hours over the TX Panhandle into south-central OK, especially beyond 00Z with an expected increase in the low level jet (20 to 40 kt by 03Z at 850 mb). In addition, RAP guidance supports the strengthening of an upper level jet max over OK/KS, placing the TX Panhandle into OK within the divergent and diffluent right entrance region after 00Z. Deeper layer mean flow is from the southwest but right and left splitting supercells will follow motions deviant from the mean wind with outflows and mergers resulting in some chaotic movement at times. An overall movement toward the east is expected of the expanding TX Panhandle/northwestern TX convection with eventual merging with activity into OK. Rainfall rates will vary but could contain peak rain rates in the 2-3 in/hr range. Flash flooding is considered likely on an isolated to scattered basis, especially if storms can overlap with recent heavy rain over portions of northwestern TX. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!90uWgDyKLH9TtxLjurgvBC3FxgMR4pMVJZ6CDGZvqJ88cm8XFRFYOrsHnh_l1A2rG4ah= 4MsbV5X2bDuDVHlYOkTY9Lg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 35619821 35519731 35319668 35099637 34519628=20 34229637 33919662 33579760 32689931 32330035=20 32250150 32510225 33470231 33460334 33840398=20 34360379 34690268 35090174 35329970=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .