Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0973
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 25 2025 20:48:45

ACUS11 KWNS 252048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252048=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-252315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0973
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 252048Z - 252315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convective Initiation along a frontal zone appears
increasingly likely between 4-7pm CDT (21-00z).  Large hail appears
to be the primary threat, although the risk for severe gusts will
increase during the evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a gradual clumping of
cumulus along a front draped from southwest to northeast across the
TX Panhandle.  A patch of cirrus over eastern NM appears associated
with the leading edge of appreciable large-scale ascent from a
Desert Southwest upper trough.  As continued heating of a
moist/destabilizing boundary layer occurs this this afternoon,
expecting additional erosion of convective inhibition along the
boundary.  Modifying the 18z Amarillo raob for lower 80s deg F
temperatures and lower 60s dewpoints, yields around 2400 J/kg MLCAPE
and minimal MLCINH (-35 J/kg).=20=20

Models continue to vary regarding timing/coverage of storm
development within this mesoscale corridor.  However, cloud trends
and forecaster experience imply at least isolated to widely
scattered storm development over the next 3 or so hours.  Depending
on timing/coverage of developing storms, a severe thunderstorm watch
will be considered.

...Smith/Guyer.. 05/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5GT_eNNg_KGauuG0r4xc6o9qvA3LKgmsyqCNYjgSmQJuED4tok_p8JPHIWx8bTikLiwwxlsZH=
63hyV2Dt0SC7RLxgfI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34800261 35440157 36180083 36280014 36019988 35659984
            34400186 34370251 34800261=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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