Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0972
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 25 2025 20:34:23

ACUS11 KWNS 252034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252033=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-252200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0972
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...much of Arkansas into southern Tennessee and
northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322...

Valid 252033Z - 252200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across much of WW322. Damaging
winds remain the primary threat though some hail with more scattered
convection is also possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, regional radar imagery showed gradual
intensification of the ongoing convective cluster across
northwestern portions of WW322. Continued upscale growth of this
cluster is likely this afternoon/evening as the expanding cold pool
continues to interact with a broad warm and unstable air mass south
of the East-West stationary front. The expectation continues to be
for one or more bowing clusters to emerge from this convection, and
spread eastward with a risk for damaging winds and perhaps an
embedded tornado or two.

Additional, more scattered, convection has also developed across
much of the warm sector this afternoon. Given the robust buoyancy
(3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE), some hail and occasional damaging winds are
also possible with these storms. However, the main risk is still
expected to be the broader complex over AR/TN maturing later into
the evening. Given the gradual intensification/organization, the
severe threat will continue to increase across much of WW322.

...Lyons.. 05/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8YdKFqfUaxkhdWi0v4YdgW9YhaSsi3yk6hWvkECJLmsCVyvhIgISoWY4NNhRtIRZv8Z8TSNV3=
A84Qc1n0HmGpL5Li0c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34639432 35539081 35318825 33428831 32938867 33029373
            33349406 34639432=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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