Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0971
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 25 2025 19:24:44

ACUS11 KWNS 251924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251924=20
NMZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0971
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...northeast NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251924Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storm development will initially focus near the higher
terrain before moving east atop the escarpment/plains.  Large
hail/severe gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows towering cumulus over
the Sangre de Cristos and a swelling cumulus field along the I-25
corridor in a post-frontal regime.  Surface analysis indicates
temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s to lower 70s deg F with
upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints.  Short-term model forecast
soundings and RAP-based Objective Analysis imply 750-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE across northeast NM.  A belt of 35-40 kt southwesterly 500-mb
flow will support storm organization as storms develop/mature into
slightly richer moisture with eastward movement later this
afternoon.  A few of the stronger storms may attain supercellular
characteristics and pose a risk for large hail.  Severe gusts could
become more prevalent if/once storms cluster and congeal east of
I-25 during the early evening before low-level lapse rates lessen
with the loss of heating.

...Smith/Guyer.. 05/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-nPPPUPwgDnGxnqZFn20BttBA45wUEbx4-OwLU7TDzZ9YJpmjB5CJ8eOApmVwI22uOghmMwRM=
9Uqj0vJWuvGHYI9mQA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35460543 36610471 36790446 36720404 36410383 35130441
            34890486 35050533 35460543=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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