Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0968
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 25 2025 18:39:38

ACUS11 KWNS 251838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251838=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-252015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0968
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...west-central into south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251838Z - 252015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered storm development is possible this
afternoon with an attendant severe risk.  Convective trends will be
monitored for a possible Watch.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery trends during the past hour
have shown a swelling cumulus field in the vicinity of a wind shift
and frontal zone draped generally west to east across south-central
and central OK.  A very moist and destabilizing airmass is over
south-central OK where surface dewpoints are in the 74-76 deg F
range.  Heating of this moist/unstable airmass is resulting in
3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE with eroding convective inhibition.  Although
a flattened mid-level ridge is located over OK, 30-35 kt
west-southwesterly flow in the 4-6 km layer, per KTLX VAD data,
coupled with weak east-southeast flow at the surface, is
contributing to sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells.=20=20

Although this convective scenario/setup is largely mesoscale
dependent and void of stronger large-scale ascent, isolated severe
storms are possible this afternoon.  Large to very large hail could
accompany the stronger updrafts.  A tornado cannot be ruled out
before clustering of storms eventually occurs towards evening.=20
Severe gusts will become the primary hazard later this evening, in
addition to some lingering hail/low tornado risk.

...Smith/Guyer.. 05/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6AWlOA4LopRHvDz2OGHkM79plwi8BNlrs76dl1qQGsKBIcZaad2Be4P56wUDv0l3ZRmQwFkbs=
EUkqGqcCmXhWafvPyk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35959747 35579678 35169585 34659568 34309578 34229636
            34329732 34299796 34159866 34529927 35149931 35719900
            36059788 35959747=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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