Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0967
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 25 2025 18:33:35

ACUS11 KWNS 251833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251832=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-252030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0967
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...Parts of Arkansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley
and western Tennessee Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 251832Z - 252030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of elevated thunderstorms across northern OK/AR,
and additional development farther south, should grow upscale into
an MCS this afternoon. An increasing risk for damaging winds, as
well as isolated hail and some tornado risk is expected over parts
of the MS Valley and Southeast. A WW is likely.

DISCUSSION...As of 1830 UTC, regional radar/satellite imagery showed
a cluster of elevated thunderstorms along and north of a stationary
baroclinic boundary from northeastern OK into the Ozarks and
Southeast. So far these storms have remained north of the primary
surface baroclinic zone, sustaining themselves in around 1000 J/kg
of MUCAPE. Recent satellite trends show the southwestern portion of
the cold pool is approach the boundary and should begin to interact
with the higher theta-E air mass across western AR and southeastern
OK. Strong diurnal heating is supporting upwards of 3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE. As ascent from the advancing cold pool, and a subtle
mid-level shortwave trough continue eastward, redevelopment along
the boundary is expected this afternoon. This, along with additional
convection developing in a low-level warm air advection regime ahead
of the line, will favor upscale growth.

With plentiful MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and 35-40 kt of deep-layer
shear from the LZK VAD, one or more bowing clusters may develop and
track east along the baroclinic zone with a risk for damaging gusts
across AR and into western TN and MS. Isolated hail will also be
possible given the large buoyancy and sufficient vertical shear.
Hail appears most probable with any more discrete cells that develop
along the baroclinic zone ahead of the surging cold pool.
Additionally, a tornado or two will be possible with embedded
mesovorticies as any stronger bows may interact with backed
low-level flow and stronger shear along the stationary boundary.

As storms develop/intensify with continued heating, the severe
threat should steadily increase across much of AR and the Mid MS and
western TN Valleys. A new WW is likely this afternoon.

...Lyons/Guyer.. 05/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9ReS3Y-oFpp-6n2HEQ8IUAKiOMQ9ZrffR0Q0H2-Xg5UzLER72ZXnuHxnwiKm7lk11jS3tn_-A=
GW4_Tk1AT_Btp0zpTk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   33129252 33429368 34009438 34649437 35599402 35659254
            35549030 35178737 34908714 33268719 32728936 33129252=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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