Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 25 2025 12:05:08 AWUS01 KWNH 251205 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-251700- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0312 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 804 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 Areas affected...South-Central Kansas through the Ozarks Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 251203Z - 251700Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to train to the southeast for several more hours this morning. Rainfall rates within this convection will reach 1-2"/hr, at times higher, leading to pockets of rainfall that may exceed 3". This rain falling atop saturated soils may produce additional flash flooding. Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows an impressive axis of showers and thunderstorms organized from central Kansas through northeast Arkansas. These storms are developing along the convergent nose of the LLJ which is measured via regional VWPs to be 30-40 kts, with weak impulses embedded within the mid-level flow contributing additional ascent. The primary storm mode within this area has been multiple clusters, organized through 40-50 kts of bulk shear as analyzed by the SPC RAP, helping to reinforce radar-estimated rain rates to above 2"/hr as measured by local WSR-88Ds. On the western edge of this complex, an MCV is developing as noted within reflectivity, and it is this feature which will eventually sweep through from west to east, combining with the veering of the LLJ to bring a slow wane/end to the morning activity. During the next few hours, the high-res CAMs are in good agreement that, in general, activity will become more progressive to the east and begin to weaken. This will be due in part to the veering of the LLJ which will less efficiently transport the elevated thermodynamics south of the warm front into the region, while the MCV also sweeps through, with weak NVA in its wake suppressing additional ascent. Until this occurs, PWs of around 1.7 inches and MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg will support continued rain rates of 1-2"/hr, with locally higher rates possible as reflected by HREF and REFS hourly-rain rate probabilities and the 15-min HRRR rainfall accumulations. This will lead to additional rainfall of 1-3", with locally higher amounts possible where HREF exceedance probabilities rise to above 20% for 3"/6hrs. Although there is some spread both temporally and spatially among the guidance as to where the heaviest rain will occur the next few hours, the HREF EAS probabilities suggest the area from far SE KS through far NW AR has the greatest potential for heavy rain during the next few hours. This is also where 48-hr rainfall has been most prolific, 3-6", leading to FFG that is compromised to 1.5-2"/3hrs due to exceptionally moistened soils. While flash flooding is possible anywhere within this area through late morning, these primed soils will be most susceptible to additional flash flooding. Later this afternoon, potentially after a break, additional convection is expected. While there is still uncertainty as to exactly where this will develop, it is likely that additional MPDs will be needed to address this threat. Weiss ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_kG6UcP4P7JKLSHJyyFhw4xK0vh4umepX2Tyrr_Bl7XcdSrfawISXuYFdDBkCN3LhP7l= LkMuLvwdB7t1OXDkEuNHTM0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF... TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 38639803 38479646 37959454 37499252 37179143=20 36729089 36649090 36329078 35869082 35469139=20 35259248 35409425 35769556 36439678 36909773=20 37209833 37519870 38159880=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .