Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 25 2025 06:18:06 AWUS01 KWNH 250618 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-251216- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0311 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 217 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 Areas affected...northern/centtral/eastern Oklahoma, southern/southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri, northwestern Arkansas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 250616Z - 251216Z Summary...Scattered clusters of thunderstorms will continue to expand in coverage across the discussion area, fostering development of ~2 inch/hr rain rates and and 2-3.5 inch rainfall totals through 12Z/7am CDT. These rain rates should result in a few instances of flash flooding. Discussion...Low-level flow has increased dramatically across Oklahoma this evening, resulting in a convergence zone generally along the OK/KS border. Storms have developed within this zone amid steep lapse rates aloft and strong instability (7C/km H7-H5 and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Individual storms within the convergence zone are exhibiting varied storm speeds/direction of movement amid a mix of elevated and near-surfaced based activity, resulting in a few cell mergers and prolonging of local rain rates. A few spots of 2-2.5 inch/hr rates have recently been observed just east of Ponca City. The storms are also expected to migrate generally eastward within the convergence zone toward areas that have received 1-6 inch rainfall totals over the past 24 hours - highest across southwestern Missouri. FFG thresholds across the discussion area are relatively low (1-2 inch/hr thresholds) - and exceedence of these thresholds are expected at times on a scattered basis through 12Z/7am CDT. Flash flooding is likely in this regime. Another potential scenario depicted/suggested by both models and observations is for mature, right-moving cells and/or clusters to migrate south/southeastward across eastern Oklahoma as cells mature through the night. This scenario would promote heavy rainfall across areas of east-central Oklahoma that have also received 3-5 inch rainfall amounts since last night and are sensitive to flash flooding (locales near Ada, McAlester, and Tulsa). Flash flooding is possible in these areas, but may take a few more hours to materialize (i.e., 09-12Z) compared to areas farther north and east. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8KREghq_1Zv9YChWDBinacOSRrXFSeN2cbXsp_8tkSX2pa8pWD_CEe0yVfGOds5U2Hbv= kVD0ua6CioIWkU-kazJj70U$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 38169680 37979466 37639310 36569245 35839289=20 35299389 34489485 34619629 35579759 36519821=20 38099843=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .