Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 25 2025 05:59:41 ACUS02 KWNS 250559 SWODY2 SPC AC 250558 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ....Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming surface temperatures during the day will result in strong destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and move east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass. Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells. Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line. Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. ....Southeast... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor. While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized multicells. Hail will also be possible. ...Broyles.. 05/25/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .