Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 25 2025 05:52:27 ACUS01 KWNS 250551 SWODY1 SPC AC 250550 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms, including the risk for very large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains. A risk of severe also extends across the Mid-South into northern Alabama. ....Southern Plains to northern Alabama... Subtle but potentially significant short-wave trough is expected to eject across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains later today. This feature will lift northeast ahead of the more significant trough that will advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. Confluent flow across the northern Plains favors dominant surface high building south in the lee of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass should spread south across eastern CO/western KS early in the period and a cold front should extend across the central TX Panhandle-northwestern OK by 18z. There may be a propensity for this boundary to settle a bit farther south than the models suggest, especially if significant precipitation develops pre-dawn across the central Plains. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms were gradually increasing in areal coverage across northern OK into southern KS. This activity is evolving within a warm advection zone that appears favorable for upscale growth into the early parts of the period. If an MCS matures over eastern KS/MO it would likely turn and propagate southeast into western portions of the TN Valley/Mid-South later this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary severe threat, though some hail could be noted. Of more concern will be the potential for organized convection across the southern High Plains later this afternoon. Synoptic front should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur across far West TX/southeast NM into the TX South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will easily be breached just ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift, as weak large-scale ascent is expected ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, 700mb temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees and CINH should be weaker. Steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy favor strong updrafts within a modestly sheared environment. Supercells are expected to initiate across eastern NM/southern TX Panhandle into southwestern OK by 21z, then grow upscale into the evening as LLJ strengthens into this region of the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with supercells, but a larger complex of storms may ultimately evolve. If an MCS matures, as expected, then severe winds may become more common downstream. Some tornado risk will also be noted with supercells. ...Darrow/Thornton.. 05/25/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .