Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0963
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 25 2025 04:35:41

ACUS11 KWNS 250435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250434=20
KSZ000-COZ000-250600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0963
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...East-central CO into western KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 320...

Valid 250434Z - 250600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 320
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe storms will remain possible
overnight.

DISCUSSION...An earlier cluster of storms over east-central CO has
weakened somewhat over the last hour, though persistent
redevelopment is occurring along its southwest flank, and there is
some indication that a weak MCV has formed in association with this
convection. Convection will tend to remain elevated overnight as it
spreads east-southeastward, but MUCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg
and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support
occasionally organized storms and perhaps an elevated bowing cluster
overnight, with a threat of at least isolated hail and strong/severe
gusts.=20

Additional elevated storms may eventually develop downstream of the
ongoing cluster, within a low-level warm advection regime. These
storms could also pose an isolated hail threat. With some severe
potential expected to continue overnight, downstream watch issuance
is possible.

...Dean/Mosier.. 05/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6eoyPdk8okqAr8ma2TibRoNIja_LmIrqCxD1PDGC_XIO9OU4hCR_1yxC695quAjeUYXLL4pEQ=
SSgNHsGdcKibHZBmKM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39300282 39280226 39090077 38910003 38419959 37919972
            37610005 37660037 37830178 38030246 38310308 38500334
            38690340 38930301 39070285 39180284 39300282=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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