Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 25 2025 03:48:36

AWUS01 KWNH 250348
FFGMPD
TXZ000-250746-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0310
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1147 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...portions of northwest Texas and the Texas South
Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250346Z - 250746Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists with slow-moving
thunderstorms across the discussion area over the next 2-3 hours
or so.  Local rain rates exceeding 2 inches per hour may occur in
a few areas through 07Z or so.

Discussion...Initially high-based convective activity over the
Texas South Plains has exhibited modest upscale growth and cold
pool development while moving slowly east over the past couple
hours or so.  This has allowed for storms to reach slightly better
moisture content and low-level shear (1.6 inch PW and 35 knots
850mb flow), resulting in updraft persistence and heavy rainfall
rates.  Localized areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates have
materialized just northwest of Jayton (Kent County) recently.
Latest convective trends (exhibiting an uptick on convective
coverage throughout the discussion area) suggests potential for
somewhat greater longevity/persistence of convection than
previously anticipated across the discussion area, with flash
flood potential expected on at least an isolated basis over the
next 2-3 hours or so.

The heavier rainfall rates are falling in mostly rural portions of
the discussion area.  FFG thresholds are in the 2-3 inch/hr range
and are being threatened where the most persistent convection has
managed to evolve.  These trends should continue for another 2-3
hours or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6jRHTMMvP992bnR-tplyqr4QvxoNAVqY9iel-9K9-rvYi5NZoYFZ5hyauP6EzGYtGxx1=
cTGKkpm1ZF-NAqE2m5RCV6o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34330000 33999854 33169852 32709952 32380079=20
            32430146 33220145 33590136 34120108=20

=3D =3D =3D
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