Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0956
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 24 2025 20:59:25

ACUS11 KWNS 242058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242057=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-242330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0956
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...Western and Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 242057Z - 242330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are
anticipated this evening across western and central Oklahoma,
particularly along a slow moving/stationary effective warm
front/outflow boundary. WW issuance will probably be needed late
this afternoon/evening, though currently there remains uncertainty
on when convective initiation will occur.

DISCUSSION...Heating in southwestern Oklahoma has driven surface
temperatures into the low to mid 90s F, which is at or near the
estimated convective temperature on the 19Z OUN sounding. Visible
satellite trends show an increase in coverage and depth of boundary
layer cumulus, though no true attempts at convective initiation have
been noted at this time. Still, an extremely unstable airmass
characterized by 3500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 45-50 kts of deep-layer
effective bulk shear will support supercell development and
maintenance. Supercells will be capable of all hazards, including
tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail in excess of 2.00 inches. The
greatest risk corridor lies along a warm front/convective outflow
boundary oriented northwest to southeast across western and central
Oklahoma, where easterly flow along and north of the boundary will
result in an enhancement of the low-level hodograph. While there is
uncertainty in the timing of convective initiation, watch issuance
may be needed later this afternoon or evening.

...Halbert/Guyer.. 05/24/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!482sgQa76dMcIHBORPFeap-DJ13-Aqc18Ueeaz7LY2aVlIrSdwvg3LNuFNQy0SRmvBtvOoRDy=
HHIn-F0ttKyfD0XYuw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   34709696 34229706 34009756 34129842 34259946 34599969
            35259996 36130001 36599981 36759934 36239774 35859709
            35189699 34709696=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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