Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0940
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 23 2025 18:53:59

ACUS11 KWNS 231853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231853=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-232130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0940
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Wyoming...southwestern
Nebraska...northeastern Colorado...northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 231853Z - 232130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity will begin to initiate to
the east of the Front Range during the next few hours, particularly
to the east/southeast of Cheyenne, with a couple of intensifying
supercells  posing increasing potential for severe weather by late
afternoon. Trends are being monitored for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Stronger boundary-layer destabilization the past few
hours has been focused to the lee of the Front Range, in a corridor
from southeastern Wyoming through northeastern Colorado.=20
Mixed-layer CAPE now appears to be increasing in excess of 1000-1500
J/kg, and notable 2-hourly surface pressure falls on the order of
2-3 mb have recently been observed across the Akron CO through
Cheyenne WY vicinity.

Deepening convective development is ongoing across the higher
terrain, particularly in a narrow plume near the Colorado/Wyoming
state border to the west of Cheyenne.  As inhibition continues to
weaken with further insolation, perhaps aided by a subtle mid-level
perturbation developing to the east of the Front Range, thunderstorm
initiation appears increasingly probable through 20-22Z.

Both HREF and NCEP SREF indicate highest calibrated thunderstorm
probabilities initially focused along the southern slopes of the
Cheyenne Ridge (supported by current trends), before increasing
southeastward across northeast Colorado toward northwest Kansas.

Beneath modest (but strongly sheared) westerly deep-layer mean flow,
 a couple of supercells are likely to evolve while slowly
propagating eastward/southeastward into/across the high plains.  As
this occurs, it appears that thermodynamic profiles will become
increasingly conducive to large hail, locally damaging wind gusts,
and perhaps some risk for a brief/weak tornado.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 05/23/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4Tk6Ey0LTCK-nMjhJis-YHCjvmh2oYVIgVY4Aju31srlAQBlhwD2BZjw_lPKn6ZjHCyMMzm54=
4N0STTNwsutoozeBs8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41140503 42060426 41500263 40550210 39990134 39110120
            38730232 39030292 39760331 41140503=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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