Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 23 2025 17:33:04 ACUS02 KWNS 231732 SWODY2 SPC AC 231731 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains to the Southeast Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter could also occur. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across parts of the central High Plains. ....Synopsis... Amplified and split mid-level flow is expected across much of the western and central CONUS D2/Saturday. A broad southern stream trough will deepen over the Southwestern states while strong ridging aloft intensifies farther north. Over the eastern US, a belt of stronger mid-level flow will advance around the southern periphery of an upper low over the Great lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a weak lee low is expected across southeastern CO and western KS with a partially modified warm front/composite outflow stretching east/southeastward. Weak upslope flow is expected north of the boundary across the central high plains, while a trailing dryline will slowly mix eastward into the southern High Plains and west Texas with diurnal heating. ....Southern Plains to the MS Valley and Southeast... A complex convective day is expected as a cluster of elevated storms or a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from southern/southeastern KS into north-central/northeast OK. Likely located along the aforementioned stalled front, these early morning storms may reinforce the boundary as they continue southeastward into the lower MS Valley. Destabilization ahead of, and re-intensification of the cluster appears possible into parts of the MS and TN Valleys Saturday afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear for an organized MCS. This would support a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two from eastern OK, through the Ozarks and into the Southeast. Across southern KS, OK and into the eastern TX Panhandle, uncertainty remains high on the location of the convectively reinforced outflow boundary and its impact on the warm sector. The primary severe corridor is expected to be along and south of the boundary and where it meets the surface low to the west. Rich low-level moisture (70s F surface dewpoints) are expected by early afternoon beneath steep mid-level lase rates of 8-9 C/km. While forcing for ascent is not expected to be overly strong, owing to weak shortwave ridging aloft, robust heating and 500 mb temperatures near -10 C should allow for isolated convection to develop along and south of the composite front/triple point. Moderate deep-layer shear and very large buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) would support risk for supercells with very large hail and damaging gusts. A conditional risk for couple of tornadoes may also develop as backed low-level flow increases along the composite front. Additional low-level hodograph expansion is expected into the evening as the low-level jet (35-40 kt at 850 mb) is forecast to increase across central and eastern OK. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with the potential for wind damage also appears likely into the overnight hours on Saturday and early D3/Sunday. ....West Texas... Shortwave ridging ahead of the primary upper trough to the west will result in neutral to slight mid-level height rises over much of the High Plains and west TX Saturday. This suggests ascent will be subtle with warm mid-level temperatures (H700 14C). The strong capping, in combination with weak ascent, may limit robust convective initiation along the dryline trailing from the surface low. However, weak convergence and very warm surface temperatures (near or exceeding 100F) may allow for isolated storms by late afternoon. Should this occur, 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear could support slow-moving supercells or clusters with a risk for hail, and damaging outflow gusts. ....Central High Plains... A narrow plume of surface moisture will extend westward across eastern CO and the central High Plains with easterly upslope flow. Widespread cloud cover and stratus is expected early, but some clearing is possible as mixing increases through the day. Supported by the upslope flow regime and subtle mid-level ascent from the approaching Southwest US trough, isolated convection is possible along the front Range and High plains by early afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and 25-40 kt of mid-level flow could support storm organization with supercells or clusters. Hail and damaging winds are most probable, though a tornado cannot be ruled out given relatively strong low-level veering and local-terrain influences. ...Lyons.. 05/23/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .