Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 23 2025 16:38:59 ACUS01 KWNS 231638 SWODY1 SPC AC 231637 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through the overnight hours, with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threats. Isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. ....Central High Plains to Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks... Multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will progress east-southeastward from the southern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by this evening. Corresponding weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will encourage modest low-level moisture transport northward into parts of eastern Colorado/western Kansas by peak afternoon heating. A narrow corridor of sufficient destabilization, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, should support organized convection. Initial development over the central High Plains late this afternoon, most likely across the Nebraska/Colorado/Kansas border region, should become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as it spreads southeastward through the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and elongated hodographs at mid/upper levels, isolated very large hail may occur, with some tornado risk as well. It remains unclear whether this convection will grow upscale into a cluster across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma later in the evening/early overnight hours as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, or if separate clusters will eventually develop as warm advection/moisture transport increases. Regardless, the airmass across this region will be at least moderately unstable, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support continued updraft organization and a continued threat for hail and damaging winds with convection that can persist east-southeastward this evening/overnight across Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually the Ozarks. ....Southern High Plains including Texas Panhandle/South Plains... A subtle mid-level disturbance/speed max over New Mexico/southern Colorado, as inferred from Water Vapor/Infrared satellite imagery, may be an influence on late-day severe storm development. At least isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development seems plausible near the dryline. While warm mid-level temperatures exist, sufficient near-dryline confluence/convergence and ample post-dry line mixing (surface temperatures reaching mid/upper 90s F with CAPE persisting atop the boundary layer in forecast soundings) should be sufficient for the initiation of sustained deep convection. Especially with some expected increase in mid-level westerlies late today, wind profiles/moderate buoyancy will support high-based supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also possible, particularly across the Texas South Plains given the well-mixed environment. ....Florida... To the south of a remnant front, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the southeast Florida Peninsula. This activity should preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, sufficient instability and vertical shear should exist for modest updraft organization. Any cells/clusters that develop could produce isolated hail and/or damaging winds. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 939. ....Southern Louisiana... A moist/very unstable environment near a northward-returning old/near-coastal front may be conducive to a very isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail risk this afternoon through around sunset. ...Guyer/Barnes.. 05/23/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .