Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 23 2025 07:30:26 ACUS03 KWNS 230730 SWODY3 SPC AC 230729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS... ....SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A marginal severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast. ....Southern and Central Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A broad, moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern U.S. Along the northern edge of this airmass, scattered thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Within this airmass, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F and the lower 70s F. By afternoon, moderate to strong instability is forecast over much of this airmass. The strongest instability is expected from east of a dryline in west Texas northeastward to a front into Oklahoma. These two features will focus low-level convergence and be favorable for convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment, combined with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible in the more intense cores. A tornado threat may also develop with supercells that become dominant, especially as low-level flow strengthens during the early evening. Further east into parts of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas, convective coverage is expected to be greater due to warm advection. Although some of this activity could be elevated, surface-based cells that develop near the strongest instability could have a wind-damage threat. Isolated large hail will also be possible. ....Southeast... Westerly mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Gulf Coast States, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 70s F. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level convergence during the late afternoon. The stronger cells could have potential for severe gusts and hail. ...Broyles.. 05/23/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .