Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 23 2025 07:01:37

AWUS01 KWNH 230701
FFGMPD
TXZ000-231056-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0305
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230656Z - 231056Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential should persist for
another 2-3 hours or so across central Texas and vicinity.

Discussion...An intense cluster of thunderstorms has grown upscale
through the night, with a favorable orientation for spots of 3-5
inch/hr rain rates at times from Brown County, TX southward
through Llano, County, TXs.  These cells continue in a  favorable
environment for producing heavy rainfall (~3000 J/kg SBCAPE, 1.7
inch PW values, slow cell movement), although a slight weakening
trend has been noted over the past half hour that is likely
attributed to weakening low-level shear with southward and
eastward extent.  Despite these recent trends, the well-organized
nature of the convection, presence of a mature cold pool, and weak
downstream inhibition suggests that flash flood potential could
continue on an isolated basis through 09Z-10Z or so - especially
if cells can make it into the central Texas I-35 corridor while
continuing their slow movement.  Areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates
remain likely at times through 09-10Z while deeper convection
persists.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_TREFCzR4mf2u0jWXv5LWb6BbIGF44wgBnJLtlehle7u-2E0sJeS25tI9HYUU4UBDIeO=
J4kieA0iStwYFH__63MO5Ro$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   31359842 30909741 30079702 28639716 28149913=20
            28770033 29740061 30450055 30689999 30609906=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.