Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0936
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 23 2025 00:06:25

ACUS11 KWNS 230006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230006=20
TXZ000-230130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0936
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Areas affected...the Big Country/Concho Valley to central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

Valid 230006Z - 230130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
continues.

SUMMARY...A mixed severe hail/wind threat should persist through at
least mid-evening as a linear cluster spreads across the Big
Country, Concho Valley, and central Texas. The need for a downstream
severe thunderstorm watch is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Amalgamating convective outflows from earlier
supercells have congealed over western north TX and adjacent Low
Rolling Plains. Despite a minimum in buoyancy across the Big
Country, low-level southeasterlies have begun strengthening per the
DYX VWP. This should result in greater low-level moisture across
central TX eventually being advected ahead of the line after sunset.
But this initial dry pocket lowers overall confidence in what
otherwise should be a more favorable setup to maintain an organized
severe wind threat through the rest of the evening. As such, the
need for a downstream severe thunderstorm watch is uncertain.

...Grams/Hart.. 05/23/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-J0ffgmoELG0-YCEON96oWTu4SqzDJeOSWuymtD9Lh_MU8riHUDlPJRB6F64sYv6Q5_PKLd5w=
wRWB6gFVN7Fmxr5fYo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32070121 32570024 33059951 33409925 33379866 33039814
            32489728 32219726 31979729 31579761 31239811 31119873
            31129991 31250045 31540119 32070121=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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