Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0930
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 22 2025 17:52:06

ACUS11 KWNS 221750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221749=20
FLZ000-221945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0930
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Areas affected...Central and Southern FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221749Z - 221945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts
and hail are possible across the central and southern FL Peninsula
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows building cumulus
across much of the central and southern FL Peninsula, with the most
vertically developed cumulus across the west-central peninsula,
along a weak, southward-progressing cold front. Notable deepening is
occurring along the east coast sea breeze as well. Expectation is
for increasing thunderstorm coverage throughout the afternoon along
both of these boundaries. Seasonably cold mid-level temperatures
(i.e. -9 to -10 deg C at 500 mb) coupled with modest westerly flow
aloft could support a few more organized updrafts capable of
damaging gust and isolated hail. Even so, the prevailing storm mode
will likely be multicellular, with limited updraft strength and
duration, keeping the overall severe potential isolated.

...Mosier/Guyer.. 05/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7MpOEaoCt4_zVO8-R7uh8Rn36yyRNp33duLAjnjsM-rz9tcBbH2rDuH4pC6S2Naz6QXh-eIDL=
ocp3ieosoAixS-kq84$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   25607998 25488060 25598090 25908128 26168152 26638180
            27118223 27718169 28098043 26857998 25607998=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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