Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0929
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 22 2025 17:27:52

ACUS11 KWNS 221727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221727=20
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-221930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Areas affected...Southern Delmarva Peninsula into the Southern
Chesapeake Bay Vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221727Z - 221930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon
from the southern Delmarva Peninsula into the southern Chesapeake
Bay vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Limited destabilization is ongoing across far southeast
VA into the southern Delmarva Peninsula as filtered daytime heating
occurs amid modest low-level moisture and cold temperatures aloft.
This destabilization is occurring along the northern periphery of
the stronger mid-level flow, which is contributing to 40-50 kt of
0-6 km bulk shear across the region. Large-scale forcing for ascent
will likely persist across this area as the upper troughing moves
through, and the general expectation is for overall storm coverage
to increase. Instability is expected to remain modest, likely
limiting the overall updraft strength/depth. However, mid-level
temperatures are expected to continue cooling, so there will likely
be enough buoyancy for a few deeper cores. Additionally, the
enhanced mid-level flow across the region could aid in the
development of a few stronger downdrafts within the strongest
storms. Even so, the overall coverage of damaging wind gusts is
expected to remain low throughout the afternoon.

...Mosier/Guyer.. 05/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4N65OkajshErSZEkUppsUHFNEIfeU_RX7gEVUIpPcLKphbUeYDyFqcrHU0RPuLWH9VZ2a707O=
W5ruD_dOlv2-PDEP50$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   38517678 38597581 38177517 37527530 36997573 36967638
            37407704 38057712 38517678=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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